It is Conference Championship day in the NFL 2021 Playoffs on Sunday with the first title to be decided being the AFC one where the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Cincinnati Bengals with the winning side heading to Los Angeles for Super Bowl LVI in two weeks.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won this Conference for the last two seasons and will be looking for a hat trick of titles here. The Bengals haven’t been to the Super Bowl since 1988 so they will be aiming to make history here.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs opened the Conference right up last week when they took care of one of the teams a lot of judges thought could win the Super Bowl this season in the Buffalo Bills. They did it with an offensive game of the like this team have become famous for and if they have that sort of level with them in this match, then on home soil they are entitled to be extremely tough to beat. The Chiefs know how to win Championship games and that is never a bad thing to have in the locker.
You do wonder if at some point the Chiefs defence is going to count against them particularly if the concussion which forced Tyrann Mathieu out of the win over the Bills last week impacts his play. If the defence can make plays then Kansas City are going to be very tough to stop. You sense they have had fuel in their fire all season after losing the Super Bowl last year and they will be triply determined to win this match and get another shot at the big dance.
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The Cincinnati Bengals have already secured one piece of silverware against the Kansas City Chiefs this season and they will be looking to double down on that here. The Bengals landed the AFC North title with a win over the Chiefs in week 17 and that will give them good memories to build from for this match. They got here by dumping out the number one seeds Tennessee Titans on the road last week so they will know they have nothing to fear in this match.
When you have an offense like the Cincinnati Bengals have then you are always going to have a chance of winning a match but they would give themselves a better chance if they can give better protection to Joe Burrow than he got last week. If they can also make some plays on defence then that will also give them a chance but this is a side who can go toe to toe with anyone in a shootout and come out on top.
Two bets jump off the page at me for this match. The first of those is for the match to have over 54 points. I don’t see a way that this doesn’t turn into a shootout and with both offenses a lot better at passing the ball than running it I’m not convinced either will be chewing up the clock too much either. These two met just a month ago when there were 65 points in a thrilling contest. The Bengals won that match from behind so we know they won’t panic should they drop behind the Chiefs here. We also know Kansas City can produce comebacks as we saw in that incredible finale last week. The over looks something of a formality to me.
The other bet I can’t ignore is for Joe Burrow to pass for more than 288.5 yards. He has caught fire in recent times. He finished the regular season with passing yard totals of 300, 348, 157, 525 and 446 in his last five games, the last of which was against the Kansas City Chiefs. He also threw for 348 yards in Tennessee last week so he is flying. Even if Kansas City double team Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow has the likes of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to get the ball to not to mention Joe Mixon out of the backfield. C.J Uzomah is another target so the Bengals passer has more than enough targets to go beyond 288.5 yards through the air over the course of this one.
Back Over 54pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
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Back J.Burrow – Over 288.5 passing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
Back him here: