Royal Ascot 2022 – Day 4 Tips and Betting Preview

It is the penultimate day of the 2022 Royal Ascot meeting on Friday and once again we have another seven race card to enjoy on what is expected to be a sizzling hot day both weather wise in Berkshire and in terms of action on the track.

The Coronation Stakes headlines the Friday card but there are no fewer than four Class 1 races on the schedule. We have scoured the card and come up with selections in six of the seven races, all at decent prices.

2.30 Royal Ascot: Albany Stakes

Preview

Another 2 year old Group race to kick us off & this one is a Group 2 for fillies over a trip of 6 furlongs.  Saeed Bin Suroor’s Mawj heads the market after an impressive 4 length victory on debut where she powered clear inside the final furlong.  A worthy favourite but odds of under 2/1 looks short.  Meditate is running for O’Brien / Moore & she is 2 from 2 including a Group win on her most recent start.

Betting

At a bigger price, I fancy Powerdress to run a big race.  She’s had just the one run & that was over 8 weeks ago where she narrowly got up close home to win a maiden at Newmarket.  That was over 5 furlongs where she travelled into the race very powerfully & came clear with one other before showing excellent battling qualities to edge out Yahsat on the line.   The form looks solid with 4 subsequent winners coming out of the race.  It appears that she was put away for this after that Newmarket race &, based on what we saw at Newmarket, she’s very likely to improve for an extra furlong.   She holds fancy entries later in the year so is clearly held in high regard so it bodes well for a big run.  Finally, her middle draw in 10 looks ideal based on what we’ve seen this week where the centre is the place to be.

Tips

VOID – Back Powerdress (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 13.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)

 

3.05 Royal Ascot: Commonwealth Cup

Preview

A Group 1 sprint over 6 furlongs for 3 year olds, the Commonwealth Cup looks a decent race this year.  Perfect Power is a worthy favourite after wins as a 2 year old in the Prix Morny & Middle Park before opening up this year’s campaign with a win in the Greenham.  He disappointed in the 2000 Guineas but surely this step back in trip indicates she doesn’t stay the mile.  The big question is whether he’s still quick enough for 6 furlongs.   The Sandy Lane at Haydock is evidently a key trial for this as the 1-2-3-4 all reappear here & all are priced 16/1 or less and are in the first 8 in the market.  El Caballo was the winner that day & continues to go from strength to strength whilst Flaming Rib ran a cracker to finish a neck 2nd.

Betting

However, I like the 4th horse home from the Sandy Lane, and the beaten favourite, Go Bears Go.  He took a really bad stumble leaving the stalls & that put paid to his chances.  That said, he came with a good run just after the 2 furlong pole before the effects of the start took their toll.   Previous to that, his form would have meant he’d have been close to favourite for this as he’d won the Railway Stakes at 2, as well as finishing placed in the Phoenix & the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.  On reappearance, he won the Pavillion Stakes, a key trial for this, beating Hierarchy comfortably with 2nd favourite for this, Ehraz into 3rd & Sandy Lane 3rd, Wings Of War, 4th.  Admittedly, he’s twice finished behind Perfect Power but the first time there was just a head difference & then a length the next time they ran against each other.  His Ascot form is impressive, with form figures reading 1-2-1 & a draw in stall 4 is perfect.  He looks the value in this Group 1.

Tips

Back Go Bears Go (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 10.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)

 

 

3.40 Royal Ascot: Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap

Preview

A maximum field of 19 for this mile and a half handicap where the Queen’s horse Just Fine is the current favourite for Sir Michael Stoute & Ryan Moore.  He was 3rd on reappearance in a nice handicap at York & comes here off the same mark.  His chances are well touted but 4/1 isn’t a price I can get involved at.  Candleford is very well fancied & could be a big danger but, with an absence of 219 days, fitness has to be taken on trust.

Betting

In an open heat, Cemhaan looks a good each way bet.  Now a 5 year old, he has a pretty decent record on turf with 3 wins and 3 second’s from 9 runs.   He has taken his form up a notch this season, winning both starts off marks of 82 & 87; he has a mark of 92 to contend with here but looks capable of defying it.  On reappearance, he ran in a Class 4 handicap at Salisbury & bolted up by almost 4 lengths.   Ignoring the outsider in the race, the horses in behind have run a total of 9 times since & won an incredible 6 of those races.  Form does not get more of a boost than that.   He then went to Newmarket, stepped up in trip to a mile & 6 furlongs, & again won impressively, this time by two & a half lengths, upped in grade to Class 2.  He’s a free travelling sort who likes to race prominently &, at the business end, just gallops his rivals into the ground.  He’s been laid out for this race & conditions seem ideal, with a nice draw in 9 & the firm ground he clearly thrives on.  At the current odds & with 6 places on offer, he’s the one to be on.

Tips

Back Cemhaan (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)


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4.20 Royal Ascot: Coronation Stakes

Preview

The Coronation Stakes is always a cracking race & this year is no different.  Almost everything relates to the 1000 Guineas in one guise or another, with Inspiral, the antepost favourite for the Guineas, is favourite here after being ruled out of the first fillies classic of the year.  She’s unbeaten having won 4 from 4 but hasn’t been seen this year and clearly has had some training issues.   Cachet, the winner at Newmarket, & Prosperous Voyage reappear here, as does Tenebrism who was favourite for the 1000 Guineas.   Cachet then went to France & was edged out in the French 1000 by Mangoustine, who adds an international flavour to proceedings.

Betting

Another to run in the 1000 Guineas was Irish raider Discoveries & she’s the one I’m siding with here.  The Guineas was her reappearance & after vying for favouritism, there was an alarming drift close to the race where she went out to 10/1 & only finished 6th.  She was up with the pace & looked a big danger before getting unbalanced in the dip & then fading, looking in need of the race.  However, her credentials are still there for all to see; she beat Oaks heroine Tuesday as a 2 year old & won the Group 1 Moyglare.  Trainer Jessie Harrington has won two of the last 4 runnings of this race with the selection’s sister, Alpha Centauri, & half sister, Alpine Star.   Both of those improved massively from 2 to 3 so it’s hard to imagine the selection won’t follow suit.  A return to a turning track will suit & she looks the one to beat.

Tips

Back Discoveries (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)

Back her here:

 

5.00 Royal Ascot: Sandringham Stakes Handicap

Preview

A big field of 28 go to post for this 3 year old fillies handicap over the straight mile & despite the numbers, it looks really low on quality.  Heredia is a worthy favourite having won all 3 career starts including a Class 3 handicap at York last time out where she prevailed by a head.  A 7lb higher mark will test her credentials as will a high draw in 21.

Betting

I think it’s best to keep it simple & go with Fresh Hope.  The yard targets this race with the Charlie Fellowes / Hayley Turner combination having won 2 of the last 3 runnings, whilst the draw on the straight track is proving more & more important so her position in 5 is a huge positive.   Form-wise, she’s right up there too, with career form figures of 4-2-3-1.  On her first run this year, she was a beaten odds-on favourite but the horse that won, Rogue Millenium, has since gone on to finish 7th in the Oaks & is rated 106.  She was just over a length & a half behind off level weights that day, and the selection is rated 82 here.  Next time up, she won a handicap off 78 getting up on the line after the usual Jamie Spencer exaggerated hold up tactics.  In fairness, she was badly hampered exiting the stalls & travelled sweetly through the race.   A 4lb rise surely underestimates her chances & provided she gets a clear run, she’s going to be in the mix especially as she has proven form over further which is a plus here with the stiffness of the track & a fast pace assured.

Tips

Back Fresh Hope (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)

 

 

5.35 Royal Ascot: King Edward VII Stakes

The smallest field of the day with just 6 runners, this is the race to sit out especially given the interest we have in the other races.  It looks a straight match between Ottoman Fleet & Changingoftheguard with 2 of the best in the business, Will Buick & Ryan Moore, going toe to toe.

 

6.10 Royal Ascot: Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes Handicap

Preview

The final race of Day 4 is a relatively new race to the meeting, a 5 furlong handicap for 3 year olds.  It’s a competitive heat with Irish challenger Ladies Church heading the market at 6/1 & Korker for last year’s winning connections next at around 8/1.  On everything we’ve seen, a low to middle draw is needed so it’s interesting that 8 of the first 10 in the market are drawn 14 or higher & none are drawn in single figures.

Betting

This leads me to one of the best drawn market leaders in Sterling Knight who exits from stall 12.  He’s quite experienced having run 12 times in total but he’s only been seen twice this turf season, winning both his starts.  First time up, he won off a mark of 75 at Windsor, finishing over a length clear & quite frankly, he could have won by quite a bit further.  He then came to Ascot & put in a top performance to land a Class 4, 18 runner handicap by around a length.   That was over 6 furlongs but the way he hit the front suggested this drop back in trip might actually be a good move.  He was drawn 14 of 18 that day, yet they all came up the far rail so that run can be marked up a fair bit as he was drawn on the wrong side.  The runner up that day, Devaste, has franked the form having finished 2nd of 21 off 2lb higher next time, then winning off 4lb higher before last time out, coming a close 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at York off a 7lb higher mark that what he raced off at Ascot.  All told, a 6lb higher mark should again prove within range for the selection & with track form in the bag, and conditions to suit, he’s the each way bet in the race.

Tips

Back Sterling Knight (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)

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Author: Martha Chavez