Having previewed the Sky Bet Championship 2022-23 season outright, there is still enough time to delve into the market for the top goalscorer in the competition ahead of it beginning on Friday evening.
This is often one of the harder markets to bet on not just because the quality of strikers in the Championship seems to rise year on year but also because the transfer window is open for almost five weeks after the season starts so strong fancies might not even be in the division six weeks into the campaign.
2021-22 – Aleksandar Mitrovic
2020-21 – Ivan Toney
2019-20 – Aleksandar Mitrovic
2018-19 – Teemu Pukki
2017-18 – Matej Vydra
2016-17 – Chris Wood
2015-16 – Andre Gray
2014-15 – Daryl Murphy
2013-14 – Ross McCormack
2012-13 – Glenn Murray
Teemu Pukki is an 8/1 favourite to be the top scorer this season. He was the leading light four seasons ago when Norwich went up from the Championship but he could only finish third two years ago and you do wonder if and when his powers will wane when you consider he is a 32-year-old now. In those two previous seasons in the Championship he had the creative talent of Emi Buendia pulling the strings which he doesn’t have any more so while he’s proven in the division he feels a little on the short side.
Ben Brereton Diaz seemingly went from average to elite at this level off the back of his Chilean discovery and he is 12/1 to be the top scorer this season. The immediate question would be whether the Blackburn forward will actually be at Ewood Park come September and if he isn’t you can forget about him top scoring. Even if he is there I’m unsure of Blackburn this season under Jon Dahl Tomasson so he looks plenty short enough particularly with the question mark of him still being there six weeks in very relevant.
Joel Piroe is also 12/1 in the betting this season. The Dutch striker had an excellent first season at Swansea with 22 goals and I guess the same question regarding Brereton Diaz applies to him, although there isn’t as many rumours of him leaving Swansea. There will be a number of teams either reacting or panicking late in the window and if Piroe starts well he might be lured away and if he doesn’t start well the chances are he won’t be competitive in this market anyway.
West Brom duo Daryl Dike and Karlan Grant are next in the betting at 17/1. The obvious thing to say is that they both play for the same club so could take goals off each other. I think both are excellent forwards but Dike seems to get injured a lot and that would concern me. Grant scored 18 goals in a pretty ordinary West Brom side last year and with the creative talents of Jed Wallace and John Swift added to the ranks you would imagine he isn’t going to lack for chances so if he can force his way into the middle he would look to have every chance.
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If you look at the list of top scorers above, we don’t need to be on someone who is going to play for a promoted side which offers up a lot more options from a betting point of view. That said it stands to reason that the teams higher up the table are going to score more goals so in theory players for those clubs are going to be more likely to top score.
I think the thing to concentrate on is the need to be the main man. If we can be on a penalty taker as well then that is all the more sweet as he’ll get a few cheap goals in that manner. When you narrow it down using those trends the market is a little easier to manage.
Given that I think Luton Town will be challenging at the top end of the table it stands to reason that I should take their leading marksman Elijah Adebayo to be the top scorer this season. I took him last year when only seven players scored more goals than him despite Adebayo missing the last month of the season with injury. Luton had to flog him last term because he was so pivotal to them but the additions of Carlton Morris and Cauley Woodrow and the introduction of five subs will mean that when games are won he can get some rest so his overall output should be even stronger this time around. I’m convinced Luton will be better so the 25/1 on the former Walsall man top scoring looks good.
I’ll also have a smaller bet on Lucas Joao who has a good scoring record in this division. When Reading almost made the play-offs a couple of seasons ago Joao was the fifth higher scorer in it and the likelihood is that he would have been in that ball park again last season but for injury. His campaign only really began in January and from there he played 22 matches and scored 10 goals, although in one of those matches he came on for three minutes and he played 32 in another so effectively he played 20 matches and scored 10 times in an ordinary side. I don’t know if Reading will be a lot better this time around but those statistics show they don’t need to be. He remains the Royals’ top man up top and given that he scores plenty of goals at this level the 66/1 on him top scoring here feels overpriced.
Back E.Adebayo Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back L.Joao Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)